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Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  29                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2017                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

PORTSMOUTH NH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

WORCESTER MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

SPRINGFIELD MA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

NEW HAVEN CT   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

ALBANY NY      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

POUGHKEEPSIE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)

ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)

ALLENTOWN PA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   9(17)
OCEAN CITY MD  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   8(18)
WALLOPS CDA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
WALLOPS CDA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   7(20)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   7(22)
NORFOLK VA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   7(23)
OCEANA NAS VA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
OCEANA NAS VA  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   7(26)
ELIZABETH CTY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
ELIZABETH CTY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   4(14)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)  19(35)   7(42)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   4(13)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)  11(22)   5(27)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
CHERRY PT NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  12(29)   5(34)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
NEW RIVER NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  12(26)   5(31)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
MOREHEAD CITY  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   9(19)   4(23)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   8(17)   3(20)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)   3(20)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)   3(14)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   2(12)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GREAT EXUMA    34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

SAN SALVADOR   34  4   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MAYAGUANA      34  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    

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Page last modified: Saturday, 23-Sep-2017 08:53:11 UTC