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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  12            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015               
2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2015                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
CHARLESTON SC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)  11(22)
MAYPORT NS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
MAYPORT NS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)  11(21)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)  13(30)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  15(20)  10(30)
ORLANDO FL     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)  11(35)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)  11(35)
PATRICK AFB    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
PATRICK AFB    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  19(30)  10(40)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  20(36)   7(43)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   4(12)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)  17(36)   6(42)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)
MIAMI FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  14(29)   5(34)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
MARATHON FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  12(23)   4(27)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
KEY WEST FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  17(27)   6(33)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)
MARCO ISLAND   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  16(24)   8(32)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
FT MYERS FL    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   8(28)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
VENICE FL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  13(16)   9(25)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
TAMPA FL       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   9(21)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   8(12)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)

MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  23(23)  16(39)   6(45)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   3(14)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)   8(44)   2(46)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   1(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  34(38)   6(44)   2(46)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  27(43)   1(44)   1(45)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)  14(30)   1(31)   1(32)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)  12(12)  25(37)   3(40)   1(41)   X(41)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GRAND TURK     34  X   2( 2)  34(36)   6(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
HAVANA         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   2(14)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   8( 8)  40(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X  18(18)  12(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PONCE          34 38  40(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
PONCE          50  4   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SAN JUAN       34 64  17(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
SAN JUAN       50  4   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

SAINT THOMAS   34 80   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)

SAINT CROIX    34 91   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)

SAINT MAARTEN  34 40   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

ANTIGUA        34  9   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

AVES           34 73   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

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Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Aug-2015 20:37:07 UTC