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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities


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POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE                                       
SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  38                         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016               
1800 UTC TUE SEP 06 2016                                            

AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED    
NEAR LATITUDE 39.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM         
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

PORTLAND ME    34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CONCORD NH     34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

PORTSMOUTH NH  34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

WORCESTER MA   34  4   2( 6)   3( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

SPRINGFIELD MA 34  5   3( 8)   3(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

BOSTON MA      34  3   2( 5)   3( 8)   5(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

HYANNIS MA     34  4   3( 7)   4(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

NANTUCKET MA   34  5   4( 9)   4(13)   9(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  7   4(11)   5(16)   8(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)

BRIDGEPORT CT  34 17   8(25)   8(33)   3(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
BRIDGEPORT CT  50  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEW HAVEN CT   34 15   6(21)   8(29)   4(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
NEW HAVEN CT   50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

HARTFORD CT    34  9   4(13)   7(20)   4(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)

NEW LONDON CT  34 12   7(19)   8(27)   6(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
NEW LONDON CT  50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ALBANY NY      34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

POUGHKEEPSIE   34  7   3(10)   4(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)

MONTAUK POINT  34 20   6(26)  11(37)   5(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ISLIP NY       34 32  10(42)   9(51)   2(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
ISLIP NY       50  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 26  11(37)   8(45)   2(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)
NYC JFK AIRPRT 50  1   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

NYC CNTRL PARK 34 19   9(28)   8(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
NYC CNTRL PARK 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEWARK NJ      34 18   9(27)   7(34)   2(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)
NEWARK NJ      50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

TRENTON NJ     34 16  10(26)   4(30)   1(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)

NWS EARLE NJ   34 30  13(43)   6(49)   1(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
NWS EARLE NJ   50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ALLENTOWN PA   34  7   3(10)   3(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

PHILADELPHIA   34 14   9(23)   3(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

ATLANTIC CITY  34 31  12(43)   4(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
ATLANTIC CITY  50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BALTIMORE MD   34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

DOVER DE       34 10   6(16)   3(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

WASHINGTON DC  34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34 16   8(24)   3(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)

OCEAN CITY MD  34 12   6(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

WALLOPS CDA    34  6   4(10)   1(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

RICHMOND VA    34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

NORFOLK NAS    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NORFOLK VA     34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  2   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN