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Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   1(14)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  18(29)   1(30)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   1(14)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  29(29)   4(33)   X(33)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   1(12)   X(12)

SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)

MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

LES CAYES      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

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Page last modified: Saturday, 19-Aug-2017 08:42:13 UTC