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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FONT13 KNHC 010847
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014               
0900 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   1( 7)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   8(28)   X(28)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)   2(25)   X(25)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)   1(37)   X(37)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)   X(21)   X(21)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PONCE          34  X   X( X)  28(28)  22(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)  24(24)  17(41)   X(41)   X(41)   X(41)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   1( 1)  21(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)  32(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

BARBUDA        34  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

ANTIGUA        34  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GUADELOUPE     34  X  14(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

AVES           34  X  27(27)  24(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
AVES           50  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

DOMINICA       34  1  55(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
DOMINICA       50  X   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MARTINIQUE     34  2  55(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAINT LUCIA    34  1  15(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

BARBADOS       34 10   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    



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Page last modified: Friday, 01-Aug-2014 08:47:54 UTC