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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities (Text)


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TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014               
0300 UTC SAT AUG 02 2014                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   2(18)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)   8(33)   X(33)   X(33)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  28(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GRAND TURK     34  X   1( 1)  46(47)   6(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   3( 3)  20(23)   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

PONCE          34  9  63(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
PONCE          50  X  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
PONCE          64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAN JUAN       34 12  44(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
SAN JUAN       50  X   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

SAINT THOMAS   34 27   9(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

SAINT CROIX    34 54   2(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)

SAINT MAARTEN  34 10   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 22   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)

BARBUDA        34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ANTIGUA        34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GUADELOUPE     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

AVES           34 47   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)   X(47)

DOMINICA       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  


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Page last modified: Saturday, 02-Aug-2014 02:46:05 UTC