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Post-Tropical Cyclone JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities


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FONT11 KNHC 190239
PWSAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016               
0300 UTC MON SEP 19 2016                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

CHERRY PT NC   34  1   8( 9)   3(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

NEW RIVER NC   34  1   5( 6)   2( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  1   7( 8)   2(10)   3(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

SURF CITY NC   34  2  11(13)   4(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

WILMINGTON NC  34  3  10(13)   3(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  5   8(13)   2(15)   3(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)

FLORENCE SC    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

LITTLE RIVER   34  3   6( 9)   2(11)   3(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  3   1( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

CHARLESTON SC  34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN