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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 182339 RRA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Mar 19  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front that extends from 
near 31N78W to inland central Florida will progress eastward 
across the western Atlantic for the next few days. Southwest 
winds ahead of the front and northwest winds behind are forecast 
to reach near-gale to gale-force north of 29N between 72W and 
77W by late tonight into early on Tue. Seas with these winds 
will be in the range of 9 to 13 ft. These near-gale to gale-
force winds and very rough seas will shift eastward with the 
cold front to north of 29N between 62W and 67W by early Tue 
afternoon. As this front weakens Tue afternoon and evening, both 
winds and seas should gradually subside.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and 
plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas 
Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by 
the National Hurricane Center, at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 06N11W, to 01N17W. The ITCZ continues from 01N17W, to the 
Equator along 20W to 04S37W.  Widely scattered moderate to 
isolated strong is depicted from 05N to 03S along both the 
Monsoon Trough and the ITCZ. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico, 
Mexico. Lower broken to overcast multilayered ceilings, and 
scattered moderate to locally strong convection are depicted 
along the frontal boundary. The strongest convection is depicted 
east of 89W and off the coast of Texas in the NW Gulf. 

Moderate to fresh N to NW winds prevail north of 26N east of 
90W. Within this winds seas are 4 to 8 ft. While NE fresh to 
strong winds prevail N of 24N west of 90W with seas 2 to 4 ft. 
Light to gentle winds are present in the remainder of the basin 
with seas 2 to 4 ft. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will exit the 
basin on Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are 
expected behind the front through Tue morning. Low pressure may 
form over the western Gulf on Thu, then track east-northeast 
toward the NE Gulf by Fri dragging a cold front across the 
basin. Expect increasing winds and seas with this next frontal 
system along with possible numerous showers and thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trade winds are present off the coasts of 
Colombia and Venezuela with seas to 9 ft due to the somawhat 
strong pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure and 
lower pressure over South America. Over the central Caribbean 
moderate to fresh winds with seas 6 to 8 are present. Elsewhere 
gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central 
Caribbean through Tue. Afterward, winds will diminish to 
moderate to fresh speeds as a cold front moves across the 
western Atlantic. This front will push southward across the 
northwest Caribbean Tue, then reach eastern Cuba on Wed while 
dissipating. Pulsing fresh to strong winds will continue near 
the coast of Colombia, mainly at night, through the forecast 
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details 
about the gale warning over the western Atlantic. 

A cold front extends from 31N74W to central Florida. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted along the 
frontal boundary. Ahead of the front, SW moderate to fresh winds 
prevail with seas 4 to 7 ft. Behind the front, NW moderate winds 
with seas 2 to 4 ft prevail. A surface ridge extends SW from 
1021 mb high pressure center near 36N18W to the Dominican 
Republic. Broad surface light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow 
is found along the ridge mainly N of 22N along with seas 4 to 7 
ft.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds are found in the tropical 
Atlantic from 9N to 22N east of 41W. Seas within this winds are 
7 to 10 ft. Similar winds are found between the Canary Islands 
and the west coast of Africa. Elsewhre mainly moderate winds and 
seas prevail.  

For the forecast, a cold front extending from 31N72W to central 
Florida will reach from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida 
Tue morning, from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Tue 
afternoon, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern 
Cuba by Wed morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are 
expected ahead and behind the front. Winds are forecast to reach 
minimal gale force tonight and Tue, affecting mainly the waters 
N of 27N. A weak low pressure may form along the front near 
30N56W on Thu morning, with the front reaching northern 
Hispaniola. High pressure in its wake will quickly shift 
eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong 
southerly winds to develop over the western half of the forecast 
waters as low pressure tracks northeastward along a coastal 
front near northeast Florida.

$$
KRV