152 
AXNT20 KNHC 251004 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Apr 25 2024

Corrected forecast for Atlantic Ocean 

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...HEAVY RAINFALL IN HISPANIOLA...

A cold front is within 180 nm to the north of the areas that are
between SE Cuba and Hispaniola. A surface trough is along 24N65W
16N67W, from the Atlantic Ocean, across Puerto Rico, to the NE
Caribbean Sea. The southern point of an Atlantic Ocean surface
trough is reaching 20N62W. The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb,
and for 700 mb, is showing broad upper level cyclonic wind flow
that is forecast to be Hispaniola and the Yucatan Channel.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the 
areas that are from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the 
Atlantic Ocean between 67W and 75W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 18N to 19N between 71W and 72W in the SW part of
the Dominican Republic. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
within a 30 nm radius of 18N70.5W in the coastal areas of the
Dominican Republic. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the
areas of the cloudiness. The precipitation is forecast to continue
on Thursday. The thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy 
rainshowers, and increasing the chance for flash flooding, 
especially in hilly terrains and in low-lying areas. Please,
refer to local weather service offices for more details about
this event.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Rough seas, in general, are from 20N northward between 30W and
50W. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 23N37W. Near gale-
force to gale- force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, 
are within 95 nm of the low pressure center in the northern 
quadrant, from 24N to 25N between 37W and 39W. Expect strong to 
near gale-force NE winds, and rough seas, are from 23N to 26N 
between 36W and 40W. Expect also: fresh to strong NE winds, and 
rough seas, from 27N to 31N between 35W and 42W. Fresh and slower 
winds, and rough seas in N to NE swell, are elsewhere from 18N to 
31N between 35W and 47W. Expect those conditions to continue for 
the next 12 hours or so. Please, read the latest High Seas 
Forecast, at nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more 
information.

A surface trough is along 27N27W, to 14N36W 10N47W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate is from 60 nm to 180 nm to the east of the
23N37W low pressure center. Scattered moderate is from 26N to 30N
between 78W and 81W. Isolated moderate is from 20N to 24N between
27W and 32W. close to the northern end of the surface trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border of Sierra
Leone and Liberia, to 02N16W, to the Equator along 21W. The ITCZ
continues from the Equator along 21W, to the Equator along 37W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 07N southward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 29N87W. A surface ridge 
extends from the 29N87W high pressure center, to the middle Texas
Gulf coast. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the 
entire area. An inland Mexico surface trough curves through the
Yucatan Peninsula, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico, northwestward.

Slight to moderate seas are: off the coast of NE Mexico, in the 
central parts of the SW corner of the area, and in the Straits of 
Florida. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle 
to moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the 
rest of the Gulf.

High pressure of 1020 mb centered over the NE Gulf near 29N87W is
allowing for light to gentle winds over that part of the Gulf 
through Thu, and for moderate to fresh southeast winds over most 
of the western part of the Gulf also through Thu. The pressure 
gradient will tighten over the Gulf starting Thu night resulting 
in increasing east to southeast fresh to strong winds over just 
about the entire basin through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 ft
in the NW Gulf on Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the 
period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about 
the potential for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola.

Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and 
isolated moderate to locally strong, are from Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and Jamaica southward between 65W and the eastern 
coast of Central America from Costa Rica to eastern Honduras.
The Pacific Ocean surface trough, that is to the east of the
monsoon trough, is along 09N75W in Colombia beyond 07N80W.
Similar isolated moderate to locally strong is in the coastal
waters between Colombia and Costa Rica.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are spread throughout the area.
Moderate seas are from 15N southward between 71W and 81W, and in
the Windward Passage. Slight to moderate seas are elsewhere from 
80W eastward, and in the coastal waters of SE Nicaragua. Slight 
seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure north of the Greater Antilles is sustaining 
moderate to fresh trade winds, except for fresh to strong winds in
the Windward Passage and in the south- central Caribbean. The 
gradient associated to the high pressure will maintain fresh to 
strong winds just north of Colombia, through the Windward Passage,
and in the lee of Cuba through Thu night. Looking ahead, 
strengthening of the high pressure starting late Fri will also 
force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of 
Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early 
next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about 
the potential for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola.

A cold front passes through 31N57W, to 25N65W, 23N70W, through the
SE Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
along cold front from 26N to 29N between 58W and 63W. Rainshowers
are possible within 120 nm on either side of the rest of the cold
front. A surface trough is about 300 nm to the SSE of the cold
front. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on
either side of the surface trough. Moderate to rough seas are from
the cold front toward the north and the northwest. 

Fresh NE winds are from 04N to 30N between 40W and 53W. Mostly
moderate to some fresh NE to E winds are between 53W and the
24N65W-to-Puerto Rico surface trough. Fresh NE winds are from 25N
northward from 20W eastward. Moderate and fresh NE to E winds are
from 26N northward between 20W and 30W. Moderate or slower winds 
are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate seas are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A weakening cold front extends from 31N57W to 25N67W and to near 
22N76W. The front will stall and gradually weaken to a dissipating
trough early Thu. Northwest to north swell near the front will 
subside late tonight. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast Thu 
and Thu night. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to 
merge with the trough and progress eastward, reaching from near 
31N57W to eastern Cuba early Sat morning, from near 25N55W to 
Hispaniola early Sun, then stall and weaken into a trough over the
far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell 
behind this next front will build seas over most of the area 
northeast of the Bahamas by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in 
the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to 
northeast winds behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By 
late Sun, these winds are expected to be at mainly fresh speeds 
south of 29N and west of 60W. At that time, fresh to strong west 
to northwest winds are expected over the far northeast forecast 
along with building seas.

$$
mt/ja