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Post-Tropical Cyclone ELIDA Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 020858
TCDEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014
200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014

Elida has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more
than 12 hours, and there currently isn't even a thunderstorm within
250 nmi of the center. Therefore, Elida is now declared a remnant
low, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on a 02/0348 UTC
ASCAT-B overpass, which indicated that 26-kt winds existed in the
southern quadrant. The remnant low is drifting east-southeastward to
southeastward at around 2 kt. The low is expected to meander
offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today before turning
westward on Thursday, and continue moving in that direction until it
dissipates in a couple of days. Although the ocean is very warm
and the atmosphere is quite moist, hostile northwesterly vertical
wind shear of near 30 kt is expected to prevent regeneration into
a tropical cyclone.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0900Z 16.9N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 12H  02/1800Z 16.7N 102.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  03/0600Z 16.6N 102.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  03/1800Z 16.6N 103.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Jul-2014 08:58:45 UTC