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Tropical Storm FRANK Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ42 KNHC 280232
TCDEP2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016
800 PM PDT WED JUL 27 2016

The cloud pattern is gradually deteriorating, and microwave data
show that the low-level center is becoming even more separated from
the residual thunderstorm activity. However, the circulation is
still vigorous, and subjective satellite intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB and objective numbers from CIMSS support an initial
intensity of 45 kt.

Given that Frank's entire circulation is moving over waters with
temperatures of less than 24C, the thunderstorm activity should
diminish resulting in gradual weakening.  Frank is anticipated to
become a remnant low by Thursday.

The cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7
kt, steered by the deep-layer flow around the subtropical high.
This motion will likely continue for a day until Frank becomes a
shallow system and moves westward within t
he trade winds. There is
good agreement in the track models, and the NHC forecast is in the
middle the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 23.4N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 23.9N 123.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 24.3N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/1200Z 24.4N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 24.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila