Marine Weather Discussion

000
AGXX40 KNHC 181854
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
254 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...                                        
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS ADJUSTED
BY 15 UTC TC FORECAST.

GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS PLACE T.D. TWO SLIGHTLY S OF PREVIOUS RUN
INCREASING ITS TIME OVER LAND...WEAKENING IT MORE AND DIMINISHING
ITS TIME OVER WATER...ONCE IT EMERGES ON BAY OF CAMPECHE. LATEST
COORDINATION TALKS EFFECTIVELY KILLS T.D. TWO WITH MOSTLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS ITS MAIN THREAT. CENTER TOO FAR AWAY FROM CONVECTION
AND PULLING FURTHER AWAY IN LATEST SAT IMAGES. LAST RAINFALL
ESTIMATE APPROACHES 6 IN WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. RUN OVER WATER
NOW EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH NO TIME TO GATHER ANY SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH. STILL SQUALLS AND BANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W TONIGHT AND WED. SEAS
COULD RAPIDLY BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT IN VICINITY OF TSTMS AND
SQUALLS.

ATLC RIDGE EXTEND W INTO NORTHERN GULF WITH MODERATE TO FRESH
E-SE BREEZE ACROSS REGION N OF 23N THROUGH SAT WHILE T.D. TWO
CONTROL WINDS AND SEAS S OF 23N.


...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC...                      
MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AS EARLIER
MARINE OBSERVATIONS WERE 2-3 FT LOWER THAN GUIDANCE...BUT 2-3 FT
HIGHER BY 18 UTC.

T.D. TWO LEFTOVER CONVECTION LINGERS OVER WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS
WITH DIMINISHING TSTMS. AS MENTIONED IN PARAGRAPH ABOVE...RAINFALL
SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM T.D. TWO.  STRONG E-SE BREEZE
LINGERS W OF 80W WITH SEAS REPORTED TO 11 FT WHILE NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS OBSERVED BY VESSELS AND SCAT WINDS NOTE 10-12 FT SEAS
ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT SUSTAINED FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
THROUGH ENTIRE BASIN THROUGH SAT AS TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W S OF
14N BRINGS NEW CONVECTION INTO THE REGION.  

...SW N ATLANTIC W OF 55W INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...                    
GFS/ECMWF BLEND WITH CONFIDENCE.

ATLC RIDGE BUILDS SW ACROSS AREA JUST AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
W-NW ACROSS NE CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUE ACROSS GREATER ANTILLES AND
ADJACENT ATLC WATERS THROUGH FRI. TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT EXPECTED
TO BRING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF ISLANDS S OF 24N WITH SEAS
6-8 FT E OF BAHAMAS BUILDING TO 7-10 FT N OF WINDWARD PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

$$
.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
GMZ011...NONE.
GMZ013...NONE.
GMZ015...NONE.
GMZ017...NONE.
GMZ019...NONE.
GMZ021...NONE.
GMZ023...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO FRI. 
GMZ025...NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
AMZ011...NONE.
AMZ013...NONE.
AMZ015...NONE.
AMZ017...NONE.
AMZ019...NONE.
AMZ021...NONE.
AMZ023...NONE.
AMZ025...NONE.
AMZ027...NONE.
AMZ029...NONE.
AMZ031...NONE.
AMZ033...NONE.
AMZ035...NONE.
AMZ037...NONE.
AMZ039...NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
AMZ111...NONE.
AMZ113...NONE.
AMZ115...NONE.
AMZ117...NONE.
AMZ119...NONE.
AMZ121...NONE.
AMZ123...NONE.
AMZ125...NONE.
AMZ127...NONE.

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
.FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.