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About this product:
Note: The time of the tropical cyclone's center location at the bottom of the graphic will
be 3 hours earlier than the time of the current advisory. The forecast cycle for each advisory
begins 3 hours prior to the issuance of the advisory products.
These graphics show probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) surface
wind speeds equal to or exceeding 64 kt
(74 mph). These wind speed probability
graphics are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track,
intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for
those forecast variables during recent years. Each graphic provides cumulative
probabilities that wind speeds of at least 74 mph will occur during
cumulative time periods at each specific point on the map. The cumulative
periods begin at the start of the forecast period and extend through the entire
5-day forecast period at cumulative 12-hour intervals (i.e., 0-12 h, 0-24 h,
0-36 h, ... , 0-120 h). An individual graphic is produced for each cumulative
interval, and the capability to zoom and animate through the periods is provided.
To assess the overall risk of experiencing winds of at least 74 mph at any
location, the 120-h graphics are recommended.
These probabilities will be updated by the NHC with each advisory package for all
active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and eastern North Pacific basins. While
separate graphics are focused on each individual tropical cyclone, probabilities resulting
from more than one active tropical cyclone may be seen on each graphic.
It is important for users to realize that wind speed probabilities that might seem relatively
small at their location might still be quite significant, since they indicate that there is a
chance that a damaging or even extreme event could occur that warrants preparations to protect
lives and property.
Additionally, these probability products are available on the National Weather Service's
National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD)
graphical tropical webpage.