This application shows storm surge height
in feet, above normal tide levels, such that there is an N percent chance of
exceeding it, where N ranges from 10 to 90 in intervals of 10 percent. The
10 percent exceedance height, for example, is the storm surge height, above
normal tide levels, such that there is a 10 percent chance of exceeding it.
This graphic is based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and
Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory and account for track, size, and
intensity uncertainty from historical errors. Additional information on the
SLOSH model can be found at:
The emergency management community is the primary target audience. However,
this product will also be widely used by other federal, state, and local
government agencies; the media; maritime interests; and the general public.
Backup Availability and Archive: In the event NHC has difficulty creating the storm surge
images, the Meteorological Development Laboratory's Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge website
maintains the same information. An archive of storm surge products is also available from the MDL website.
Note: You may also read the full description for the Probabilistic Storm Surge Exceedance product at MDL's web page.