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34-knot Wind Speed Probability
Wind Speed
Earliest Reasonable Time of Arrival of 34-knot winds
Experimental Arrival
Time of Winds
Wind History
Google Maps API Warnings and Track Forecast Cone
Interactive Map
Warnings and 5-Day Cone
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Surface Wind Field
Warnings and
Surface Wind

Storm Surge Exceedance

Google Maps Interactive | Static Images

Select a Chance of Exceedance:
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 %

Click image to zoom out [Image of Storm Surge Exceedance]
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

About this product:

Description:  These graphics show storm surge height including tides, in feet above ground level (AGL), such that there is an N percent chance of exceeding it, where N ranges from 10 to 90 in intervals of 10 percent. The 10 percent exceedance height, for example, is the storm surge height including tides, above ground level, such that there is a 10 percent chance of exceeding it.

These graphics are based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory and account for track, size, and intensity uncertainty from historical errors. Additional information on the SLOSH model can be found at:

The emergency management community is the primary target audience. However, this product will also be widely used by other federal, state, and local government agencies; the media; maritime interests; and the general public.

Backup Availability and Archive:  In the event NHC has difficulty creating the storm surge images, the Meteorological Development Laboratory's Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge website maintains the same information. An archive of storm surge products is also available from the MDL website.