The table shows the probability that the maximum sustained (1-minute) surface (10 meter elevation) wind speed of the tropical cyclone will be within various intensity ranges (dissipated, tropical depression, tropical storm and hurricane) and for the five categories on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale during the next 120 hours. These probabilities apply to the maximum sustained surface wind associated with the cyclone, and not to winds that could occur at specific locations.
The probabilities are based on forecast errors during recent years in the official track and intensity forecasts issued by the NHC. The probabilities are computed from the same method that creates the individual location specific wind speed probabilities.
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Page last modified: Friday, 22-Nov-2013 03:07:27 UTC