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Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY

Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Graphics   Archive  

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability
Hurricane Wind
Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability
50-knot Wind
Speed Probability

34-knot Wind Speed Probability
Trop Storm Wind
Speed Probability

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Maximum Wind
Speed Probability

Google Maps API Warnings and Track Forecast Cone
Interactive Map

Warnings and 5-Day Cone
Static Images

Surface Wind Field
Warnings and
Surface Wind

Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule
1-2-3 Rule

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Storm Surge Exceedance

Google Maps Interactive | Static Images

Select a Chance of Exceedance:
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 %

Click image to zoom in [Image of Storm Surge Exceedance]
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic

About this product:

Description:  These graphics show storm surge height in feet, above normal tide levels, such that there is an N percent chance of exceeding it, where N ranges from 10 to 90 in intervals of 10 percent. The 10 percent exceedance height, for example, is the storm surge height, above normal tide levels, such that there is a 10 percent chance of exceeding it.

These graphics are based upon an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model runs using the National Hurricane Center (NHC) official advisory and account for track, size, and intensity uncertainty from historical errors. Additional information on the SLOSH model can be found at:

The emergency management community is the primary target audience. However, this product will also be widely used by other federal, state, and local government agencies; the media; maritime interests; and the general public.

Backup Availability and Archive:  In the event NHC has difficulty creating the storm surge images, the Meteorological Development Laboratory's Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge website maintains the same information. An archive of storm surge products is also available from the MDL website.

Note:  You may also read the full description for the Probabilistic Storm Surge Exceedance product at MDL's web page.

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Page last modified: Thursday, 03-Oct-2013 21:13:03 UTC