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Eastern Pacific 2-Day GTWO
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Eastern Pacific 5-Day GTWO
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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 250540
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that shower activity has formed closer to the circulation center of a low pressure area located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. The low is already producing winds near tropical storm force north of the center, and any additional increase in organization would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The low is forecast to move westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph, and upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for development during the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing disorganized shower activity. Some development is possible while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, associated with a tropical wave, continues well south of the coast of southern Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become somewhat more favorable for development of this system over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form well south of southeastern Mexico by early next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$ Forecaster Berg

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