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000
ABNT20 KNHC 280542
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure located near the north coast of central Cuba is producing a large but disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development today while this system moves westward through the Straits of Florida. The low is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental conditions are forecast to a little more conducive for development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba through tonight. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 200 miles west-southwest of Bermuda remains poorly organized. Any development of this system should be slow to occur due to the proximity of dry air during the next couple of days. This low is forecast to move westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of North Carolina where conditions are not favorable for development. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system later this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

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High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$ Forecaster Brown

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