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000
ABNT20 KNHC 272340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

An area of low pressure centered near the north coast of Central Cuba is a little better defined this afternoon, and is producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. Any development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it interacts with the terrain of Cuba through Sunday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become a little more conducive when the low moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Reports from the Cuban Meteorological Service indicate that 3 to 5 inches of rain have fallen in portions of the island this afternoon. These rains are likely to continue primarily over portions of eastern and central Cuba tonight and Sunday. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are probably occurring over portions of the Bahamas, and this activity will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

The broad area of low pressure located about 150 miles southwest of Bermuda has become elongated and the associated shower activity remains poorly organized. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur due to the proximity of dry air during the next couple of days. This low is forecast to move westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of North Carolina where conditions are not favorable for development. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Conditions appear favorable for development of this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

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High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$ Forecaster Avila

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