Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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Atlantic 5-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 212339

800 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche have not become any better organized during the past few hours. However, upper-level winds could become more conducive for development later tonight and Wednesday, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued with short notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force. This system could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday night and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$ Forecaster Brown