Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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Atlantic 5-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 280543

200 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A strong tropical wave is located about 170 miles east of Barbados. This disturbance is producing winds to near tropical storm force, and the associated thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of organization. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form later today. The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, and is expected to pass over the Windward Islands later today, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Thursday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system again later this morning.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America should monitor the progress of this disturbance, and consult products issued by your national meteorological service, which could include tropical storm warnings or watches. Regardless of whether the system is a tropical wave or a tropical cyclone, heavy rains and tropical-storm-force winds in squalls are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Leeward Islands, beginning this morning and continuing through tonight and early Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico just to the southeast of Tampico, Mexico, is associated with a weak low pressure system that is drifting westward. Proximity to land and unfavorable upper-level winds are expected to inhibit any significant development before this disturbance moves inland over Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$ Forecaster Stewart