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000
ABNT20 KNHC 292346
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is moving westward at 20-25 mph. Associated shower activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the system any development should be slow to occur. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend. By the middle of next week, the wave is expected to be in the western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more conducive for development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure system centered a couple of hundred miles south of Cabo Verde continues to show signs of organization. Although this system does not have a well-defined circulation at this time, some development is still possible during the next day or two before the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$ Forecaster Stewart

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