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Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 211147
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure in the southern Bay of Campeche has become better defined. Although the associated showers and thunderstorms are currently not well organized, this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next day or so while it moves slowly eastward toward the western Yucatan Peninsula. Later in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Azores. This system is producing winds of gale-force and could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$ Forecaster Blake

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