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000
ABNT20 KNHC 271732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located more than 700 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure located between the northern coast of Cuba and Andros Island in the Bahamas continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the south and east of its center. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys by Sunday. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled to investigate this system today has been canceled. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A broad area of low pressure located about 140 miles southwest of Bermuda is producing winds of 30 to 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity has not become any better organized during the past few hours, and significant development of this system is likely to be slow to occur due the proximity of dry air during the next couple of days while it moves westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of North Carolina. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear is expected to make development unlikely. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

A weak trough of low pressure located south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development before this system reaches the coast of Texas on Sunday. However, heavy rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next few days. For additional information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Conditions appear favorable for development of this system later next week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

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High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$ Forecaster Brennan

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