Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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Atlantic 5-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 270533

200 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical cyclone could be forming. If this trend continues, then a tropical depression or a tropical storm would likely form later today while the system moves west-northwestward to westward at about 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings could be required at any time. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Some shower activity continues in association with the remnants of Lisa, located about 600 miles southwest of the Azores. This system is expected to merge with a cold front later today before regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$ Forecaster Stewart