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Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 211750
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Satellite data indicate that an area of low pressure located about 275 miles east of Guadeloupe has become a little better defined today. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited and disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves west-northwestward at around 20 mph across the Lesser Antilles. The mountainous terrain of Hispaniola could limit development during the first part of the weekend, but conditions are expected to become more conducive for development by Sunday when the system is forecast to move near or over the Bahamas. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands through Friday, and over Hispaniola late Friday and Saturday. Interests in those islands and in the Bahamas should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$ Forecaster Brennan

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