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000
ABNT20 KNHC 251154
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Gaston, located about 1200 miles east of the Leeward Island.

An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is centered just southeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands. The wave is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of Hispaniola, however, satellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity is well removed from the area of lowest pressure. Surface data also indicate that the low continues to lack a well-defined center. Although upper-level winds are only marginally conducive for development during the next day or so, they are expected to become a little more favorable by the weekend, and this system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the wave later this morning.

Regardless of development, heavy rains are likely over Puerto Rico today, and strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely over portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days. These rains could lead to flash floods and mudslides. Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is increasing likely that some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$ Forecaster Brown/Brennan

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