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000
ABNT20 KNHC 231421
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to discuss results of aircraft reconnaissance mission.

Updated...Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the disturbance located near Hispaniola continues to lack a well-defined surface circulation. As a result, advisories are not being initiated at this time. However, environmental conditions are favorable for the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm later today or Sunday. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward over or near the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central Bahamas Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today. Winds to tropical storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the central Bahamas through Sunday night. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$ Forecaster Brennan

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