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000
ABNT20 KNHC 212025
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
425 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update first system

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft did find a small well- defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche. However, the thunderstorms associated with the low are still not organized enough for this system to be considered a tropical cyclone. Upper-level winds could become more conducive for further development by tomorrow, and this system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the Mexican state of Campeche late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, tropical cyclone formation appears unlikely due to interaction with a cold front while the system is over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued with short notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south of the Azores. This system is producing winds of gale-force and could acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves west- southwestward at about 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$ Forecaster Blake

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