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Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 261753
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located about 950 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands have increased and become slightly better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds, possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this disturbance on Tuesday afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity has redeveloped in association with the remnants of Lisa, located about 700 miles southwest of the Azores. This system is expected to merge with a cold front on Tuesday before regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is drifting westward. Upper-level winds are not expected to be conducive for significant development before this system moves inland over northeastern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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