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000
ABNT20 KNHC 281142
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Gaston, located about 600 miles east of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure located near the north coast of central Cuba continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development today while this system moves westward through the Straits of Florida. The low is expected to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental conditions could become somewhat more conducive for development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely over portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Cuba through tonight. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later today. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few hours in association with an area of low pressure located about 250 miles west of Bermuda. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some additional development of this system is possible during the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. As the low approaches the coast of North Carolina by mid-week, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A tropical wave is expected to move offshore of the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Conditions are expected to be favorable for development of this system later this week while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$ Forecaster Brennan

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