Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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Atlantic 5-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 202332

800 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located over the southwestern Bay of Campeche have changed little in organization since this afternoon. This system has the potential to become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days while it moves slowly eastward across the southern Bay of Campeche. Later in the week, the low is forecast to interact and possibly merge with a frontal system over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean Sea. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles southeast of the Azores. This system is producing winds to gale-force and could gradually acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves slowly westward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by late Wednesday and development after that time is becoming less likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$ Forecaster Brown