Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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Atlantic 5-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 292335

800 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Erika is moving quickly west-northwestward across the Florida Straits this evening. There are no signs of redevelopment at this time, and upper-level winds should remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of this system's prospects for regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to spread across portions of the western Bahamas, south Florida and the Keys tonight and Sunday. This activity should spread northwestward and then northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later Sunday and Monday. Additional information on this system can be found in marine forecasts and local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service and the meteorological services of Cuba and the Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Satellite pictures indicate that thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area that recently moved off of the west coast of Africa is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression could be forming. If this development trend continues, advisories would likely be initiated tonight or Sunday. This system is expected to move northwest toward the Cape Verde Islands at 10 to 15 mph, and interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$ Forecaster Kimberlain