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Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 270553
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 900 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure located near the central Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the south and east of its center. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely to continue over Hispaniola today. This activity is expected to spread over eastern and central Cuba over the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys late this weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A weak trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system before it reaches the coast of Texas later this weekend. However, heavy rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next few days. For additional information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

A broad area of low pressure is centered a little over a hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda. The associated shower activity is currently disorganized. However, data from the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the low is producing winds near 35 mph east of the center. This low is forecast to move westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of the Carolinas during the next few days, but any development is likely to be slow to occur due to the system's proximity to dry air. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$ Forecaster Berg

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