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000
ABNT20 KNHC 271138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 800 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure located south of Andros Island in the Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly to the south and east of its center. Upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so while the low moves west-northwestward through the Straits of Florida at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. Heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of eastern and central Cuba today. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys later this weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

A weak trough of low pressure located about a hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Louisiana is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Conditions are not expected to be conducive for development before this system reaches the coast of Texas on Sunday. However, heavy rainfall is possible along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next few days. For additional information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure centered about 130 miles southwest of Bermuda is producing winds of around 35 mph. While shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little near the center during the past few hours, any significant development of this system is likely to be slow to occur due the proximity of dry air. This low is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward at about 10 mph toward the coast of the Carolinas during the next few days. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

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High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$ Forecaster Brennan

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