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000
ABNT20 KNHC 220150
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to update discussion on low pressure area over the Bay of Campeche

Updated: Satellite and radar data indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with the well-defined low in the southern Bay of Campeche have increased and become better organized during the past hour or two. If the current development trend continues, tropical cyclone advisories will be initiated later this evening or overnight. Interests in Mexican state of Campeche and elsewhere in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm warnings could need to be issued on short notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force. This system could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday night and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

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High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$ Forecaster Brown

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