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000
ABNT20 KNHC 310557
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A fast-moving tropical wave is nearing the Lesser Antilles. Although showers and thunderstorms are fairly well-organized, there are currently no signs a closed surface circulation. However, this system has the potential for some slow development during the next couple of days, but the best chance for tropical cyclone formation is likely to be by the early to middle part of next week when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Shower and thunderstorm activity should spread westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola by tonight and on Monday. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure system centered about 650 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde islands has changed little in organization. This system is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph, and development, if any, should be slow to occur due to unfavorable upper-level winds. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$ Forecaster Stewart

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