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000
ABNT20 KNHC 221759
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few hours in association with a small area of low pressure located just north of the Mona Passage between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Satellite wind data and preliminary reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation associated with the low is poorly defined. Some additional development of this system is possible today, but environmental conditions are expected to be more conducive for the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm when the disturbance moves near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Regardless of whether the system becomes a tropical cyclone, gusty winds and heavy rainfall are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. Interests in the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with short notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$ Forecaster Brennan

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