Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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Atlantic 5-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 211741

200 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure area in the far southern Bay of Campeche continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds could become a little more conducive for development by tomorrow, and this system still has the potential to become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland over the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Later in the week, the low also has some potential for development over the northwestern Caribbean Sea if it remains separate from a cold front. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the disturbance. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large non-tropical low is located over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south of the Azores. This system is producing winds of gale-force and could acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next day or so while it moves west- southwestward at about 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Thursday and development after that time is not likely. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW.

$$ Forecaster Blake