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000
ABNT20 KNHC 242332
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A broad area of low pressure centered about 100 miles north of Puerto Rico is producing gale-force winds over water to the north of the Lesser Antilles. However, satellite images indicate that shower activity has become less organized than earlier today, and the low continues to lack a well-defined center. Although upper- level winds are only marginally conducive for development, this system could still become a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions have the potential to become more conducive for development over the weekend when the system is near the central or northwestern Bahamas.

Regardless of development, gusty winds, heavy rains, and possible flash floods and mudslides are likely to occur over portions of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern and central Bahamas during the next couple of days. Please consult products issued by your local meteorological offices and High Seas Forecasts from the National Weather Service for further details.

Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Because of the large uncertainties regarding this system's development and future track, it is too early to speculate on what specific impacts might occur in the northwestern Bahamas, Florida or beyond. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

&& High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$ Forecaster Blake

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