Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 262337

800 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

Shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure located in the central Bahamas has increased during the past several hours but it remains disorganized. Upper-level winds are not favorable for significant development during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development when the system reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely to continue over Hispaniola tonight and Saturday. This activity is expected to spread over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is associated with a weak trough of low pressure. Conditions are not expected to be favorable for development before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend. This disturbance could produce heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next couple of days. For additional information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of disturbed weather, associated with a broad area of low pressure, has formed a couple of hundred miles south of Bermuda. Little motion is anticipated during the next two days, and a slow westward heading should begin thereafter. Development of this system, if any, is likely to be slow to occur due to this system's proximity to dry air. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$ Forecaster Avila