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000
ABNT20 KNHC 261143
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure pressure located about 1100 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form around mid-week while the low moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds should spread over the Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Shower activity increased overnight in association with the remnants of Lisa. Although earlier scatterometer data indicated winds to tropical storm force, the system's circulation was somewhat elongated. Unfavorable environmental conditions are expected to cause the circulation to open up into a trough of low pressure later today without the possibility of regeneration into a tropical cyclone. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

$$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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