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000
ABNT20 KNHC 041455
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1055 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion on the low pressure area near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina.

Satellite imagery and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in association with the low pressure area centered near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. In addition, surface observations indicate that the circulation has become better defined, with winds near 35 mph over water to the east and south of the center. While upper-level winds are at best marginally conducive, there is some potential for a tropical cyclone to form later today or tonight as the low moves northeastward along the coasts of South and North Carolina. After tonight, the low is expected to move into the open Atlantic Ocean and merge with a frontal system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will spread along the coastal areas of South and North Carolina today and tonight. For additional information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts and local forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

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High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

$$ Forecaster Beven

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