Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 251747

200 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1200 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas. Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning indicate that the system still lacks a closed circulation, and that the strongest winds associated with the system likely have decreased to below tropical storm strength. In addition, shower and thunderstorm activity has become significantly less organized during the past 24 hours. Although upper-level winds are not conducive for significant development during the next day or so, they could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early next week when the wave is expected to approach southern Florida or the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mudslides, are likely over Hispaniola today. This system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or two. Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is possible that some impacts, at a minimum heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

$$ Forecaster Brown