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000
ABNT20 KNHC 261746
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure is located between the northeastern coast of Cuba and the central Bahamas. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased during the past few hours, but remains disorganized and is located mainly to the east and southeast of the low. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development early next week when the system approaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today and over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will likely spread into parts of southern Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico is associated with a weak area of disturbed weather. Surface pressures in this area are high, and significant development of this system is not expected before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend. However, regardless of tropical cyclone development, this disturbance could produce rainfall along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to southeastern Texas during the next couple of days. For additional information, please see products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$ Forecaster Brennan

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