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Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 231742
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Preliminary data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite wind data indicate that the disturbance located between Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas continues to lack a well-defined surface circulation. However, conditions are still expected to be favorable for the development of a tropical depression or tropical storm later today or Sunday. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft will continue to investigate the system this afternoon.

This disturbance is forecast to move northwestward over or near the southeastern Bahamas today, and over or near the central Bahamas Sunday and Sunday night. Heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to continue over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today. Winds to tropical storm force and heavy rains are expected to spread over the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the central Bahamas through Sunday night. These rains could cause life- threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the Turks and Caicos and all of the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical storm watches and warnings could be required with little advance notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$ Forecaster Brennan

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