Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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Atlantic 5-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 252329

800 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph through the southeastern Bahamas. This system has become less organized since yesterday, with only minimal associated shower activity, and the chances for development during the next 2 days have decreased. Overall, environmental conditions are not expected to be as conducive for development of this system as anticipated earlier this week. However, upper-level winds could become a little more favorable over the weekend or early next week when the system is expected to be near the Florida Keys or over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mudslides, are likely over Hispaniola and eastern Cuba through tomorrow. This system could produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas during the next day or two. Interests in South Florida and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of this disturbance since it is possible that some impacts, such as heavy rains and gusty winds, will occur beginning this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

$$ Forecaster Blake