Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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Atlantic 5-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 281152

800 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the strong tropical wave located near Barbados is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph. Regardless of whether or not the system becomes a tropical storm before it moves through the Lesser Antilles, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains will spread across Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia today. Satellite and surface observations suggest that the circulation associated with the system has become better defined, and the reconnaissance aircraft is beginning its mission to determine if a tropical storm has formed. The system is moving westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph, and is expected to pass over the Lesser Antilles later today, and move over the southeastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Thursday.

Interests in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands should consult products issued by your national meteorological service, including possible tropical storm warnings or watches. Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and along the northern coast of South America should also monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms along the coast of the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a weak low pressure area near Tampico, Mexico. This low is forecast to move inland later today or tonight and significant development of this system is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$ Forecaster Brown