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Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 222334
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the area of disturbed weather near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola reported winds of tropical storm force over the open waters north of those islands. However, the aircraft data and surface observations indicate that the system still lacks a well-defined surface circulation. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Saturday morning, if necessary.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system are gradaully becoming better organized, but the proximity of the system to Hispaniola could limit development tonight. Conditions are expected to become more conducive for development when the disturbance moves near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Saturday. Gusty winds and heavy rains are expected across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight, and over portions of Hispaniola and the southeastern and central Bahamas tonight and Saturday. These heavy rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Interests in the southeastern and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of this disturbance, since tropical storm watches or warnings could be required with little advance notice. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$ Forecaster Beven

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