Atlantic 2-Day GTWO
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ABNT20 KNHC 261135

800 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 1200 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.

A weak area of low pressure extending from eastern Cuba northward to the central Bahamas is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant development during the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development early next week when the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate this system this morning has been canceled.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola today and over eastern and central Cuba through the weekend. Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall are likely over portions of the Bahamas, and will likely spread into parts of South Florida and the Florida Keys over the weekend. Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

A weak area of disturbed weather is located over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures in this area are currently high, and little to no development of this system is expected before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$ Forecaster Brennan/Brown