AXPZ20 KNHC 261520

1605 UTC THU MAY 26 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N91W to a 1012 mb low centered near 10N112W to 08N123W. ITCZ extends from 08N126W to 09N136W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm south of the trough axis between 82W and 107W, within 120 nm NE of the low near 10N112W, and outside the convergence zone from 10N to 13N between 88W and 91W, and from 02N to 06N along the coast of Colombia east of 79W.


High pres well north of the area extends a ridge over northern waters roughly north of 15N and west of 112W. Scatterometer data from last night showed fresh NE winds north of the convergence zone between 122W and 138W, with highest winds to 27 kt within 90 nm west of a trough axis from 12N134W to 07N137W. The trough has been moving west at about 15 kt and now extends from 12N135W to 07N138W. Expect the trough with its associated winds and seas to move west of 140W by Fri morning. Active convection has been firing primarily between 105W and 120W during the past 24 hours along the convergence zone, and focused around a weak low center near 10N112W. Model guidance indicates the low will remain weak and ill-defined as it drifts west through Fri night, then GFS shows a slightly better organized low developing near 12N120W on Sunday. Strong NNW winds along the California coast are expected to produce an area of N swell that will sweep south of 30N Fri night and affect north-central waters N of 27N between 120W-130W through the weekend. Benign marine conditions are expected to prevail across the remainder of the forecast area through Sun.

$$ Mundell