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AXPZ20 KNHC 260222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0215 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 11N ALONG ROUGHLY 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W AROUND 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N TO 14N ALONG ROUGHLY 101W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 103W AND 110W. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 09N OR 10N OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS FORECAST AFTER WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT IN LONG PERIOD SW SWELL NEAR THE LOW PRES/WAVE S OF 10N UNDER MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT INTO WED.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS CLIMATOLOGICAL FOUND. ASIDE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVES...A TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 13N115W TO 08N117W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. A 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA WAS NOTED NEAR 13N131W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OBSERVED FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W.


...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REACHES FROM ROUGHLY 30N125W TO NEAR CABO CORRIENTES JALISCO. RESIDENT TROUGHING FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SW TO W WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT OFF THE BAJA COAST...DUE IN PART TO LINGERING LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS WEST OF 100W. LOOKING AHEAD...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW PRES FORMING SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR 10N105W EARLY TUE THEN SLOWLY DEVELOPING...POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.

S OF 15N E OF 110W... STRONG GAP WIND FLOW TO 25 KT IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AREA ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXITING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 88W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 8 FT IN THE AREAS OF THE STRONG GAP WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE AS THE TROPICAL WAVES SHIFT WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 101W TONIGHT OR EARLY TUE. WHILE ONLY MODERATE SW FLOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THIS LOW THROUGH TUE...SEAS WILL BUILD IN EXCESS OF 8 FT AS THE WINDS INCREASE INTO THE LOW DUE TO AN ADDED COMPONENT OF SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL START BY MID WEEK AS CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE LOW PRES NEAR 109W TO DEVELOP FURTHER POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THE LOW WILL SHIFT WNW PASSING TO THE NE OF CLIPPERTON ISLAND NEAR 10N109W THU THEN NW OF THE AREA FRI.

ELSEWHERE... CONVECTION NEAR A LOW PRES THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY NEAR 09N117W HAS DISSIPATED AND SHIFT WEST OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE...LEAVING A WEAK EXPOSED CENTER NEAR 10N115W. WESTERLY SHEAR IS ACTING ON A QUASI- STATIONARY 1009 MB LOW PRES AREA NEAR 13N131W. THE CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE...BUT REMAINS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE LOW ITSELF APPEARS TO BE MORE DISORGANIZED THAN BEFORE AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH THROUGH LATE TUE. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH...BUT THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH TUE. RELATED SEAS TO 9 FT WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY...BUT AN AREA OF WAVE HEIGHTS TO 8 FT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER AN AREA FROM 13N TO 18N W OF 130W IN A BROAD MIX OF SWELL. FARTHER NORTH...A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 30N128W TO 26N137W TO 22N140W. 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW IS NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH EARLY TUE.

$$ CHRISTENSEN

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