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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211605
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE OCT 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO LOW PRES NEAR 08N87W 1007 MB NW TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N94W 1006 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 16N102W 1006 MB TO 10N112W TO 10N129W TO 09N130W. ITCZ FROM 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF TROUGH W OF 135W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM THE SW U.S. TO 28N122W TO NEAR 20N129W. TO ITS E...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS N OF 19N AND EASTWARD TO CENTRAL MEXICO. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AND STABLE AIR IS PRESENT TO THE N OF 13N E OF 120W. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER RIDGING IS NEAR 12N119W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS JUST W OF THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA NEAR 13N143W. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON WED. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PRESENT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE. CONVECTION NOTED OVER THIS PORTION OF THE AREA IS RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND WITH THE 1006 MB LOW JUST OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 13N92W TO 16N95W. THIS ACTIVITY IS UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO LINGER THERE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER GUIDANCE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THU AS THE LOW NEAR 16N94W MOVES LITTLE.

WITH RESPECT TO MARINE INTERESTS...THE MAIN STORY IS NW SWELLS THAT HAVE PROPAGATED INTO THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N117W TO 16N128W TO 12N140W PRODUCING SEAS OF 8-13 FT. THE HIGHEST OF THESE SEAS IS N OF 24N E OF 134W. BY 48 HOURS...THE NW SWELL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO HAVE BEEN BECOME DIFFUSED WITH SEAS OF 8 FT IS CONFINED TO N OF 04N BETWEEN 109W-130W. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO S OF THE EQUATOR AND W OF ABOUT 110W THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

$$ AGUIRRE

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