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AXPZ20 KNHC 262151
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH FROM 06N77W TO 04N81W TO 05N86W. ITCZ FROM 05N86W TO 07N105W TO 06N112W BEYOND 05N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W...AND FROM 06N TO 07N BETWEEN 107W AND 111W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 105W/106W FROM 8N TO 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 104W AND 107W.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 131W/132W THROUGH 32N TO 12N. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT...THAT IS PUSHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD... EXTENDS FROM THE SONORA COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO NEAR 28N110W...ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO 26N112W IN BAJA CALIFORNIA...TO 23N120W...AND DISSIPATING TO 23N127W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY SATURDAY. SHORT PERIOD N SWELL IS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL N OF 25N WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 13 FEET.

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 110W WESTWARD. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII AND THE PERSISTENT RIDGE THAT IS TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY NEAR 30N140W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING THE DAY TODAY. LOCAL DRAINAGE EFFECTS ARE ENHANCING GAP WINDS DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ASCAT PASSES FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN SHOWING AT LEAST 25 KNOT WINDS. THE FORECAST IS FOR THE STRONG WINDS TO GENERATE A PLUME OF 8 TO 11 FOOT SEAS FOR TODAY...WITH SWELLS OF 8 FEET TO 9 FEET REACHING TO 101W ON SATURDAY. A WEAKER DIURNAL PULSE IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY...IN ORDER TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHWARD IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN ORDER TO INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS ARE NOT FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ANY MORE. NORMAL MODERATE TO FRESH DRAINAGE FLOW PERSISTS. AN AREA OF NORTHEAST SWELL...THAT WAS GENERATED BY GALE FORCE WINDS YESTERDAY...IS LOCATED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 98W AND 104W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NEXT STRONG PULSE OF GAP WINDS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF THE PEAK WINDS WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE.

$$ MT

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