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AXPZ20 KNHC 041541
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 04 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... LOW LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE OF 1005 MB IS CENTERED NEAR 06N123W MOVING W-NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THE LOW FORMED ALONG A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IN A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION GENERATED BY A KELVIN WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM OF CENTER IN THE EAST QUADRANT. NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM BUT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N103W TO 17N103W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 101W AND 111W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N114W TO 16N114W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 111W AND 118W.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 07N85W TO 07N94W TO 10N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN 76W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 101W...AND FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 101W AND 118W.


...DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE OF 1016 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO NEAR 17N110W. A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13.5N139W IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N OF THE LOW. THE FRESH WINDS ARE GENERATING 8 FT SEAS FROM 14N TO 18N W OF 132W. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS DECREASED AND CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA CONTINUES TO AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACTIVE WEATHER FROM 03N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 125W. THE ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE KELVIN WAVE HELPED WITH THE GENERATION OF BOTH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE CONTINUED CONVECTION HAS ALSO HELPED TO GENERATE AN UNSTABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT WHICH HAS LED TO A BREAKDOWN OF THE ITCZ.

THE CARIBBEAN JET EXTENDING INTO THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE PULSING STRONG GAP WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN PULSES ARE OCCURRING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A PLUME OF SHORTER PERIOD SWELL OF 8 FT PROPAGATING AS FAR WEST AS 93W DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY. ELSEWHERE...FRESH GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

$$ HUFFMAN

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