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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260329
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JAN 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35 KT ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 14N. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 35-40 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS REINFORCING HIGH PRES ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR TO SWEEP ACROSS THE GULF. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 15-16 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 17-18 FT. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE A LONG DURATION GALE WIND EVENT LASTING WELL INTO THE WORK WEEK.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 05N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N95W TO 08N110W TO 09N125W TO 07N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.


...DISCUSSION... ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA W OF 100W. A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW THAT YESTERDAY FORMED JUST W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AND NOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N119W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 12N112W. ABUNDANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH THAT EXTENDS NEWD TO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS TO THE SE OF THE LOW AND JET STREAM BRANCH AND IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A RIDGE DOMINATES SE MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

AT THE SURFACE...THE STRONG HIGH PRES THAT WAS LOCATED WELL N OF THE AREA DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS HIGH PRES OF 1016 MB LOCATED NEAR 34N128W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO COVER MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ALONG THE THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWING MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NE WINDS FROM 15N TO 21N W OF 120W. A WEAK TROUGH...REFLECTION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS ANALYZED FROM 24N115W TO 20N114W TO 16N115W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS IS NOTED FROM 20N TO 24N E OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO 110W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN AREA OF LARGE LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS PROPAGATING SEWD THROUGH OVER THE WESTERN WATERS. THESE SWELLS ARE RESULTING IN MAX COMBINED SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT WITH PERIODS OF 16-17 SECONDS. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO 22N140W BY MON EVENING AND WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH BY TUE EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS... FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS REACHING MINIMAL GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BY EARLY WED MORNING.

FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND S TO NEAR 04N AND BETWEEN 79W- 81W BY LATE MON NIGHT...AND LIKELY S TO NEAR 03N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W BY LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.

THE PRES GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING TO SUPPORT THESE GAP WIND EVENTS.

$$ GR

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